Friday, January 19, 2007

Testing and More Testing

The last week of NEXTEL Cup Daytona testing has come to a close, with interesting and slightly confusing results for Michael, wonderful outcomes for both David and Kurt and worrying implications for Brandon (though better news is on horizon for him, I hope).

Just by looking at the numbers of Michael’s test results (see them all at
Jayski), fans may feel their heart sink. Cumulatively, he only had the 59th fastest speed – ouch! But when you dig down further, it makes more sense.

Michael never drafted. For all three days he only did single-car runs, which at first had me wondering why. Then I realized that single-car runs are much more important to a car out of the top 35 than what you can do in the draft. To qualify for the Daytona 500, one must first set your spot in your Duel race. For the go-or-go-home cars this is incredibly important, because let’s say Michael qualifies 5th for his Duel, above all the other go-or-go-homers. Even if he finished last, he would make the 500 because of his qualifying speed. This is what happened to Hermie Sadler last year. He qualified 19th for the Duels, the second fastest single-car qualifying of the go-or-go-homers. Even though he finished last in the Duel race, he made it in the 500 because of his single-car run.

Confusing, huh? But after I read up on this I feel a little better about the Daytona 500. If Michael can qualify well for the Duel, then his chances of making the Daytona 500 are much better.

His best speed of the session came during qualifying runs, when he was 8th fastest. Cross your fingers that he can qualify 8th for the Duels!

David’s speeds of course look a lot better cumulatively because he took part in drafting. Both his single-car and drafting speeds look promising. I think he will have a good chance of qualifying well for the Duels and if he doesn’t and can keep his nose clean he could race his way in.

Kurt had an exciting moment when he took a COT on the track on Wednesday and made an impressive speed of over 191MPH in a single-car run. So much for NASCAR’s hopes of getting rid of the restrictor plate! He remarked later on SPEED that he could really feel the power and speed, and that the drivers who went at paces in the 230MPH range had more cahoonas than he does!

Lastly, I’m very worried about Brandon’s test. He was near the bottom of the speed charts for every session except one, where I assume he was drafting and made it up to 29th. Apparently he was being observed by NASCAR because of his lack of experience (as was A.J. Allmendinger). I’m wondering what exactly that means – did he have to run a certain speed? Is it just to make sure he isn’t reckless? But anyway I think his chances of making the Daytona 500 are very slim, simply because his team is underfunded. However, he was at
Homestead CTS testing with the #46 Morgan-Dollar team and was 9th in the evening session, 2nd the next morning and 4th that afternoon. I’m very excited over this and hope that he can be in that truck full-time this season, since things may not turn out very well in Cup for the 72 car.